The first qualification place for Euro 2012 was filled on Friday when a youthful German side beat Austria 6-2 to book a spot in Poland and Ukraine. The rest of Europe, not for the first time, have been left trailing in Germany’s wake as they play for the 13 remaining places, with intriguing battles still to be fought in each group.
The Netherlands and Spain should both join Germany tonight, but who else is closing in on qualification?
Germany will qualify strongly for next summer's showpiece tournament. Who will join them?
GROUP A
Tonight: Azerbaijan v Kazakhstan, 16.00; Austria v Turkey, 19.30
Germany’s win means Austria are all but out, leaving second place between Turkey and Belgium. The advantage is with Turkey after they defeated Kazakhstan on Friday, while Belgium were stunned by a late Azerbaijan goal in a damaging 1-1 draw. Turkey are now a point ahead of Belgium with a game in hand.
Both teams still have to play Germany (Turkey at home, Belgium away), but Turkey’s final match at home to Azerbaijan should be when they clinch qualification.
Prediction: Turkey to pip Belgium to second.
GROUP B
Russia v Republic of Ireland, 16.00; Macedonia v Andorra, 20.00; Slovakia v Armenia, 20.15
The Republic of Ireland’s failure to break down Slovakia on Friday could prove crucial, as a win would have put some daylight between the sides. Instead they are level on 14 points, two behind Russia.
Any positive result in Moscow would be satisfactory for Ireland and keep them in the mix for the play-offs. They will expect to win their final two matches against Andorra and Armenia.
Slovakia should beat Armenia, but they face a tougher last two games at home to Russia and away to Macedonia. The Armenians, on 11 points, aren’t completely out of it themselves. This group will go to the wire.
Prediction: Ireland to avoid defeat in Moscow and finish second to Russia.
GROUP C
Serbia v Faroe Islands, 19.30; Estonia v Northern Ireland, 19.30; Italy v Slovenia, 19.45
Italy’s narrow win against the Faroe Islands means they need two points from their remaining three games to qualify.
Serbia are favourites to finish second having beaten Northern Ireland, and have a game in hand over Slovenia, with whom they are level on points (11).
If the Serbs beat the Faroes then lose to Italy, assuming Slovenia lose to Italy as well, it could come down to a shoot-out for second place between Slovenia and Serbia in Maribor in October.
The losers of the Estonia v Northern Ireland match will be out of contention, though the winners still face a tough task to overhaul the two former Yugoslavian nations above them.
Prediction: Italy to win the group. Serbia to make second by getting a point at home to Italy in October, meaning they’ll need a draw against Slovenia in their final game.
GROUP D
Bosnia and Herzegovina v Belarus, 19.15; Luxembourg v Albania, 19.15; Romania v France, 19.30
France’s struggle past Albania has put them in poll position, three points ahead of Bosnia, four ahead of Belarus and five ahead of Romania.
Bosnia made themselves favourites for second place by beating Belarus, who have played a game more than their rivals, and can now virtually rule the same opponents out of the running with a win in the return home fixture.
Romania must beat France to have a hope of qualifying. With things so tight, the pivotal round of games will be the final one, when Bosnia travel to France and Romania host Albania.
Prediction: France to grab top spot by beating Bosnia in Paris, condemning their opponents to the play-offs.
GROUP E
Finland v Netherlands,19.15; Moldova v Hungary, 21.30; San Marino v Sweden, 19.30
After their rout of San Marino, the Netherlands will make sure of top spot with a point against Finland due to their goal difference.
Hungary’s late win over Sweden kept the two sides level on 15 points, though Hungary have played a game more. Sweden will take full advantage of a Hungarian slip-up in Moldova by beating San Marino to reclaim second.
Sweden then face Finland away in their game in hand, before hosting the Netherlands in their final game. Hungary’s last match at home to Finland should be a victory, but it won’t matter should the Swedes do what’s required.
Prediction: Sweden to win the rest of their games, including against the Netherlands who would have already qualified, and take second place.
GROUP F
Croatia v Israel, 19.00; Latvia v Greece, 19.30; Malta v Georgia, 19.30
On Friday, wins for Greece in Israel and Croatia in Malta meant the victors are probably the only two sides that can qualify.
They should both win again in this round of matches, but face off in the penultimate game in Greece, with the victor surely winning the group.
Prediction: Greece to win the group by beating Croatia at home.
GROUP G
England v Wales, 19.45; Switzerlandv Bulgaria, 19.30
England may have strolled to victory in Sofia, but they won’t quite be able to celebrate qualification if they beat Wales at Wembley tonight.
If they do, the only thing that can stop them topping the group will be Montenegro winning their final two games – against England in Podgorica and away to Switzerland.
Prediction: England top, Montenegro second.
GROUP H
Denmark v Norway, 19.15; Iceland v Cyprus, 19.45
This group looks the tightest of them all. Portugal are top, ahead of Norway on goal difference, while Denmark are three points behind them both with a game in hand. A 4-0 win for Portugal in Cyprus was much needed, while Norway required an 88th minute own goal to beat Iceland.
A win for Denmark against Norway would put them in a great position to finish at least second, especially as they then face Cyprus away and Portugal at home.
The top three have pulled so far ahead of Cyprus and Iceland that any dropped points from now on will be catastrophic.
Prediction: Denmark to top the group by winning the rest of their games. Portugal to nick second place on goal difference.
GROUP I
Scotland v Lithuania, 20.00; Spain v Liechtenstein, 21.00
The only thing standing between Spain and the finals is Liechtenstein. The defending champions will win the group with a win in Logrono.
If Scotland could have hung on against Czech Republic they would have been favourites for the runners-up spot, considering their game in hand. Instead they are five points behind the Czechs, though they should close the gap by beating Lithuania.
If they do, and assuming they lose to Spain, they will have to beat Liechtenstein and hope the Czech Republic slip up against Spain and Lithuania.
Prediction: The Czech Republic to make the play-offs, though Scotland will make it interesting by beating Lithuania and Liechtenstein.
