Why Spain Will Fail

You will have no doubt been inundated with various predictions tipping Spain to become World Cup winners in 2010. Most pundits worth their salt (whilst not being asked how England will fare) have suggested the Spanish have reached their time to transfer from nearly-men to champions. 

And why not? Having surged through the European Championships to claim gold with ruthless attacking football, played in a fantastic style, surely they should be favourites. They possess some of the best players in the world in Xavi, Fernando Torres and Iker Casillas. They have a manager who has won the greatest club competition in the world, in Vicente Del Bosque.

They have essentially everything going for them to finally land football’s greatest prize. But as anyone who has climbed a mountain will tell you, the final part is always the steepest. This is football’s highest peak and will require a show of strength of will to reach the summit.

And in this writer’s opinion, it will be a climb too far.

I touched on their manager earlier in the article. Del Bosque has won all there is to win at club level, mastering his Real Madrid charges to Champions League glory, as well as claiming the La Liga title. No arguments with his credentials, he is by far and away the best man for the job.

However, the Euro 2008 success came from a period of stability. Luis Aragones had four years in charge, including a World Cup failure to determine his team, his style and assert his authority over his side. This is Del Bosque’s first campaign in charge and some suggest he is still not entirely sure over his best team or even formation.

He seems unsure whether to opt for 4-4-2 or the Barca-style 4-5-1/4-3-3 attacking formation. Does Fabregas make his first team? Does he field wingers or more central midfielders/attackers? There is a lack of a definite game plan to lead Spain to glory just yet. Given time to assert his own imprint on the team, he may well achieve something, so 2014 would be a more likely bet in this case.

There are also issues with one or two of the players going into this summer. Torres has had an injury hit season where he has struggled to maintain any fitness for a decent period of time. Yes, the World Cup is only for a month, but you never know when he might break down again. Likewise, Fabregas has had little action for two months and you never know how a hefty blow to the leg will affect that break.

Xavi and Iniesta are also two players paying the price for being key players for their clubs, as both have started to feel the effects of playing 50/60 games a season. Muscle injuries have started to play their part and you can never be quite sure if they’ll be at 100% come the crucial stages.

There is also the question if Jesus Navas, the Sevilla star, can control the issues of homesickness he suffers in order to become a force for Spain.

Now for the major problem: The weight of expectation. For years this has crippled Spain in major competitions. Their public expect them to go far in every tournament, but time and again they’ve failed to leave any impression, generally crashing out at the quarter-final stage. At best.

At Euro 2008, the public had no optimism. While many abroad were predicting Spain to be contenders, the consensus at home was one of pessimism. In fact, the official theme song for the campaign was translated as “We’re going to make the quarter-finals.”

Now the optimism has been restored and the public are expecting victory in South Africa, expect Spain to succumb and return to their ways of disappointment and lack of success.

As a footy fan, I will be delightedly humbled to see Spain play beautiful football on the way to securing the most coveted prize in the game.

They have a fair run to the quarter-finals, so an early exit is unlikely and they may have everything in place to go far, yet do not be surprised if Spain fall before the semi-finals.

Expect the weight of expectation to stop Spain from achieving the climb to the summit of world football. The World Cup is their Everest, but expectation is their gravity. And it’s a much more powerful force.